Declining Trust and Participation in Iraq’s Elections: A Look at Two Decades of Change

by | Nov 16, 2025 | News | 0 comments

Since Iraq’s first parliamentary elections in 2005, voter turnout has steadily declined, signalling a widening gap between citizens and the political process. The early post-2003 elections were characterized by widespread optimism and a strong desire among Iraqis to shape the future of a new political system. However, years of unmet promises, persistent corruption, and weak governance have gradually eroded public trust. As the numbers indicate, many Iraqis now view elections as ineffective in delivering meaningful change, one of the central reasons behind increasing calls for boycotting the vote.
Between 2005 and 2021, turnout fell from over 70% of the eligible adult population to just 41% in 2021, the lowest since 2005. However, in 2025, participation increased again to approximately 56% among registered biometric voters. This apparent rise must be understood in context: the method used to calculate turnout has changed over time.

How Turnout Is Calculated

From 2005 through 2018, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) calculated turnout based on all eligible citizens above 18 years of age. In 2018, the metric was revised to measure participation only among those holding biometric voter ID cards, this change, while improving administrative accuracy, makes direct comparisons with earlier elections less straightforward. For example, a 56% turnout among biometric registrants may correspond to roughly 40% of the total adult population, meaning that while administrative participation increased, actual engagement remains limited. 

Year
 Population above 18 years old
2005
 15- 17 million
2010
 18.4 million
2014
 20 million
2018
 20 million
2021
 21 million
2025
 29-30 million

**Note: The most recent national census in Iraq was conducted on November 20, 2024. Prior to this, the last full nationwide census took place in 1987, while a later census in 1997 was carried out but excluded the Kurdistan Region. The numbers shown reflect estimated population data issued by the Central Statistical Organization.

The 2025 parliamentary elections: Erosion of Trust in the Electoral Process

The 2025 elections revealed clear regional disparities in voter participation across Iraq. Northern provinces demonstrated significantly higher engagement, while much of the south continued to experience low turnout. Duhok recorded the highest participation nationwide at approximately 76%, reflecting strong electoral mobilization in the north. In contrast, Maysan registered the lowest turnout at about 43%, illustrating the growing disillusionment in southern provinces that once formed the core of Iraq’s post-2003 political movements.
IIACSS field data from October show that distrust—not access—remains the key barrier to participation. Among Iraqis with biometric voter IDs who chose not to vote, a survey that was conducted by IIACSS in October 2025, just a month before the elections, indicated that of those who said they were boycotting elections altogether, 34% stated that politicians “never fulfill their promises,” 29% said there is “no real hope for change,” and 10% believed the elections were “not free and fair.” Only another 10% said they had no preferred candidate or that politics simply did not concern them.
This pattern indicates that disillusionment has spread beyond activists or opposition figures to a wider segment of society, including former voters who had previously participated in multiple election cycles.