Iraqi Election Forecasts The Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS) has released its election forecast report based on the latest field data collected up to November 8. The report relies on a statistical model designed to account for the most significant variables affecting election outcomes, taking into consideration Iraqis’ past voting behavior since 2005, along with different scenarios for turnout rates and the seat allocation rules adopted under the Sainte-Laguë system. Expected Voter Turnout Estimates indicate that the national turnout rate will range between 30% and 40%. However, this figure is calculated exclusively among holders of biometric voter cards, which artificially inflates the rate without necessarily reflecting an actual increase in the number of voters. Accordingly, the real turnout—when measured against the total number of eligible Iraqi voters aged 18 and above—is expected to be lower than the official rate that will be announced after the polls close. Leading Coalitions Current estimates indicate that the Reconstruction and Development Alliance is leading the race with around 29% of the projected seats, followed by the Taqaddum Alliance with approximately 14%, and the State of Law Coalition with 11%. The Sadiqoon Alliance is also expected to secure around 6% of the seats. Meanwhile, Al-Azm, Tasmim, and Hasm alliances are projected to receive between 2.5% and 4.0% nationally. The combined share of other lists and independent candidates is estimated at about 19%, while roughly 10% of voters remain undecided. Competition Map by Province The electoral landscape varies notably across provinces. The Reconstruction and Development Alliance is expected to lead in Baghdad, while a close race is anticipated between “Nineveh for Its People” and “Al-Hasm” in Nineveh. In Basra, Tasmim is projected to come first, followed by Sadiqoon, whereas in Anbar, the Taqaddum Alliance is leading, trailed by Azm. This represents the most accurate estimate that can be issued before election day. It is based on a nationally representative sample of 2,800 respondents from 15 provinces, excluding the Kurdistan Region, with a margin of error of ±5%. Seat Allocation Method It should be noted that these figures represent the projected distribution of vote shares, not the exact number of parliamentary seats. The final seat distribution depends on numerous variables that are difficult to predict. These include differences in turnout rates across provinces, the quotas for women and minorities, the results of the special voting, and the seat allocation formula applied under the Sainte-Laguë method. About IIACSS The Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS) is a research organization specializing in market studies and public opinion measurement in Iraq and the region. The institute operates branches inside and outside Iraq through a network of researchers, experts, and field teams covering all provinces. IIACSS is the regional representative of Gallup International in the Middle East and North Africa and has conducted over three million interviews in Iraq and abroad since 2003.